Zhongnanhai

This video is the issue du jour among the Chinese at the moment.  It goes to show respect for authority is quickly declining in China. I have a good friend in Guangzhou who mentioned that northerners are considered laobi to the Guangdongren.  She sent me this video as proof.

(Despite constant fiddling with HTML code and YouTube, I couldn’t seem to embed it here.  So check out the link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFlMK2dcMwM) 

As an avid follower of American politics, I routinely get asked* about who will win the Presidency in 2008.  Perhaps, considering the election is over a year and a half away, it’s too early to say. But I’m on a 2-election winning streak (called George W. Bush both times!), and I think this election is a lot more clear than most people think.

I’ve said for a few years now that the Republicans have much stronger candidates than the Democrats.  Unlike Canadian, British, or Australian politics, the United States Presidential election is far more focused on the individual personality rather than the party. There’s no question that the electorate is tired of George W. Bush, and want his team and philosophy swept from the White House.  But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Republicans are dead.

I remember covering a George Bush campaign stop in Bellevue, Washington back in 2000.  That night, as he did throughout his campaign, he called himself a "uniter, not a divider".  Seven years on, America is arguably more divided than at any time since the civil war. 

I think the electorate is tired of the Fox News vs. Michael Moore partisan politics.  The winner of the 2008 Presidency will not be the candidate that can "bring out the base", which George Bush was successful in doing.  The winning candidate will have strong cross-party appeal and a pragmatic streak. The winning candidate will not be an ideologue. The winning candidate will have a mix of foreign policy experience, will be trusted by the American people, and will have a strong track record in politics.  The winning candidate will be Rudolph Giuliani.

The media attention is currently focussed on the Democrats, primarily Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. I’ve warmed to Hillary Clinton in recent months, however she is still too polarizing a figure to win in a general election. And if Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will face a strong Republican party campaign machine that will attack him for his youth and inexperience.  I don’t believe Americans, when the chips are down, will vote for a junior Senator with zero foreign policy experience in a time of war.

Unless Al Gore steps into the race (and he, too, may still be too polarizing) the door is open for a strong Republican candidate. John McCain has proved himself a maverick and used to have strong cross-party appeal. However his support for the Iraq war and the troop surge has hurt his credibility among middle-of-the-road Americans. His age is also a factor.  Many felt he was too old in 2000 for the Presidency, and he is now 70.

Mitt Romney, who is favored by my father, could be the dark-horse candidate.  He has good buzz at the moment, but his Mormon faith is bound to be an issue in the US media.

There’s no doubt, to me, that at this stage, Rudy Giuliani is the man to beat.  Nobody sums up America’s resolve in the "War on Terror" better than Giuliani, who defiantly marched through the streets on the morning of September 11th. For his efforts, he was selected as Time’s Person of the Year, ahead of George Bush.  

Rudy Giuliani has a strong record as Mayor of New York. His most notable achievement was drastically reducing the city’s crime rate and turning areas, like Times Square, into safe havens for tourists. I visited New York three years ago, and found many parts of Manhattan even safer than my native Vancouver. Giuliani is an excellent orator and, regardless of his most recent comments, is known as a pro-choice candidate, and is pro-gun control. This makes him a safe choice for Democrat and swing voters.

Giuliani’s toughest challenge will be winning the Republican nomination, because of his well-known Liberal views.  But if he can succeed in doing that, and I believe he will, the Presidency will be his to lose. He is likeable, polls well, and has significant cross-party appeal.  I really believe the White House will be staying Republican in ‘08.

*And by that I mean, a friend once asked me what I think.

Here are a couple of links that I thought I’d pass along:

• One of the best, and funniest blogs on Japan is Japundit.  This post is a disturbing example of Japan’s odd sex-crazed culture. (I’ve never been able to fathom the prim-and-proper, conservative nature of Japanese people, and how that meshes with nearly-naked photos of underage girls in public places, which I saw on Tokyo’s confusing metro system the last time I was in town.) The site usually shows hilarious forms of Chinglish (is it still Chinglish if it’s translated from Japanese?) and a collection of T-shirts with seemingly random English words strung together. I guess it’s a Pan-Asian thing.
• Beijing-based corresondent Geoffrey York of the Globe and Mail has an interesting article on Rupert Hoogewerf’s famous rich list.  Each year he gathers the names of China’s richest people. In the past, when people were ashamed of their wealth, people would beg and bribe him to keep their names off the list. But times are changin’, and China’s rich and powerful feel much more comfortable letting others know about it.
• And you thought Memoirs of a Geisha was controversial.  The Washington Post is reporting that two films about the Nanjing Massacre are underway. This year is the 70th anniversary of the killing, and comes at a sensitive time as Japan and China begin to repair relations. I actually went to Nanjing a few weeks ago to visit the war museum there, but sadly it was closed for renovations. On a side note, I found it a bit surreal to walk around the city, and see so many girls in tight mini-skirts on the arms of foreigners.  I know it’s fine, and all, and the massacre was a long time ago.  Just odd thinking about the city’s past, and the suffering of its people. It’s like the partying and hooking up was happening on a grave site.
• Shanghaiist has a great post (albeit about a week old) about Shanghai being the sex capital of the world.  A reporter from a Japanese magazine says "Right now, Shanghai is the hottest spot in Asia — believe it. It’s got those famous karaoke clubs with hostesses, massage parlors and erotic baths. It’s evolved beyond anything we Japanese can imagine." And that’s saying something.
• I know there are very few people in China who follow British Columbia politics, but there are some.  If that’s you, I highly recommend Sean Holman’s Public Eye Online. He has excellent sources and has broken some major stories.
• And finally, the Vancouver Giants have won the Memorial Cup!

And on a personal note, it looks like a decision has been made.  I blogged earlier about whether to stay in Shanghai or return to Beijing for schooling. Despite the fact nearly everyone I’ve spoken too in Shanghai thinks I must be certifiably crazy, I will be returning to the dusty capital. Let’s hope I’m doing the right thing.

I should arrive in town on Sunday.